5/13/07

Tracking Picks - PEP, KO, JSDA

Pepsico, Inc. (PEP)
First Recommendation - BUY (03/05/2007)
Performance - ~ 6% gain in last 2 months
Reason behind excellent performance - The Street's tumble in late Feb-07 stressed increased market volatility; consequently investors are now turning to defensive stocks such as PEP.
Outlook - Positive. Pepsi should continue to benefit from its international business and broad product line. Also, in early May Pepsico announced 25% increase in its annual dividend; this should attract more investors.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

Coca-Cola Co. (KO)
First Recommendation - SELL (03/20/2007)
Performance - ~ 10% gain in last 2 months
Reason behind excellent performance - KO reported a phenomenal 2007 Q1.
Outlook - Positive. It looks like KO has been revived by its management. I still prefer PEP over KO because of its bigger product line that includes cereals and chips. But, I notice that people are appreciating Coke ZERO more and more every day.
Current Recommendation - Upgraded from SELL to HOLD.

Jones Soda Co. (JSDA)
First Recommendation - BUY (03/20/2007)
Performance - ~ 11% gain in last 2 months
Reason behind excellent performance - Strong marketing strategy; JSDA's management is doing a great job of marketing its product as healthy and by putting its consumer's picture on its bottles.
Outlook - Neutral. Though, JSDA's market share has been increasing, it reported lower than expected profits in 2007 Q1.
Current Recommendation - HOLD only if you can handle high risk. Also, JSDA is currently expensive with a PE of 116.

5/12/07

Tracking Picks - NYX, DJO, CAT, XOM

NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX)
First Recommendation - BUY (02/03/2007)
Performance - ~ 10% decline in last 3 months
Reason behind lagging performance - Very often there is no connection between the company's fundamentals and its stock price. NYX is one such example. All NYX did in last 3 months was successfully merge with Europe's best and in return it experienced a hard fall. To some extent the recent downgrade of NYX by Goldman Sachs triggered its sell-off on the Street. The Goldman Sachs report basically recommended a SELL on NYX and a BUY on NASDAQ, rationalizing that NASDAQ is better poised to succeed in the US market. However, I believe the single biggest reason to get into NYX is its exposure to the European market not the US market.
Outlook - Positive. Recently, NYX reported a solid Q1 2007, which did not include earnings from Euronext. I believe NYSE-Euronext will beat all estimates in upcoming quarters once the revenue from Euronext starts flowing in.
Current Recommendation - BUY. Currently, the street is not on board with NYX, which makes investing in NYX very risky. However, I believe NYX can bring big gains.

DJO Incorporated (DJO)
First Recommendation - BUY (02/10/2007)
Performance - ~ 11% decline in last 3 months
Reason behind lagging performance - Problems with the integration of the Aircast business. On 05/08/2007 DJO posted a 40 percent jump in operating expenses and consequently a fall in 2007 Q1 earnings causing its share price to fall by approximately ~ 17% in one day.
Outlook - Dim short term outlook. DJO cut its 2007 full-year profit forecast because of increasing costs of inventories. This will also constrain increasing market share in the 2007.
Current Recommendation - SELL. In my opinion investing in an orthopedic device company is a great way to play the baby-boomer trend. I think investors should look into other better established players of the industry with broader product line such as Zimmer Holdings Inc. (ZMH) and Stryker Corp. (SYK).

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
First Recommendation - BUY (02/20/2007)
Performance - ~ 12% gain in last 3 months
Reason behind excellent performance - International exposure and thriving commodity market.
Outlook - Positive. US housing market is expected to get better by the end of 2007 and this is good news for CAT.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

Exom Mobil Corp. (XOM)
First Recommendation - BUY (03/05/2007)
Performance - ~ 15% gain in last 2 months
Reason behind excellent performance - Strong market for Oil.
Outlook - Positive. An oil company is a must have in any well diversified portfolio, and in my opinion XOM is the best oil company. Also, XOM is one of the most loved company by the mutual funds biggies which makes it a low risk.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

5/2/07

Tracking Picks - AUY, SBUX, MO, DENN

Yamana Gold Inc. (AUY)
First Recommendation - BUY (12/26/2006)
Performance - ~ 15% gain in last 4 months.
Reason behind good performance - Rising inflation and strong market for gold and copper.
Outlook - Positive. In current economic times, I believe gold must be a part of every well diversified portfolio, and the best way to play gold is AUY. AUY is the fastest growing intermediate gold company and is setting an example for the rest of the industry. On 04/24/2007 Yamana Gold reported that Q1 2007 production figures were ahead of budget. In my opinion, although AUY's momentum has stalled in last couple of weeks, it is poised to go much higher.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)
First Recommendation - BUY (12/31/2006)
Performance - ~ 11% decline in last 4 months.
Reason behind lagging performance - Meeting (not beating) analyst estimates.
Outlook - Positive. Omnipresent Starbucks is committed to expand its business in more and more countries, the opening of its first store in Romania on April 8th being the latest example of its ongoing expansion.
Current Recommendation - Analyze Starbucks 2007 Q2 report coming out tomorrow (05/03/2007) for short term prospects. BUY for long term investing.

Altria Group Inc. (MO)
First Recommendation - BUY (01/10/2007)
Performance - ~ 5% gain in last 4 months.
Reason behind good performance - KRAFT spin-off, dormant litigation environment.
Outlook - Positive. A great value stock paying a good dividend (current yield is = ~ 5%); minor setbacks due to unforeseen lawsuits are possible.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

Denny's Corp. (DENN)
First Recommendation - SELL (01/25/2007)
Performance - ~ 12% decline in last 3 months.
Reason behind lagging performance - Falling same-store sales and guest traffic, in addition to high debt and low market share.
Outlook - Negative. Though Denny's management has been doing a lot to refinance its debt, it is proving to be just not enough.
Current recommendation - AVOID