5/12/07

Tracking Picks - NYX, DJO, CAT, XOM

NYSE Euronext, Inc. (NYX)
First Recommendation - BUY (02/03/2007)
Performance - ~ 10% decline in last 3 months
Reason behind lagging performance - Very often there is no connection between the company's fundamentals and its stock price. NYX is one such example. All NYX did in last 3 months was successfully merge with Europe's best and in return it experienced a hard fall. To some extent the recent downgrade of NYX by Goldman Sachs triggered its sell-off on the Street. The Goldman Sachs report basically recommended a SELL on NYX and a BUY on NASDAQ, rationalizing that NASDAQ is better poised to succeed in the US market. However, I believe the single biggest reason to get into NYX is its exposure to the European market not the US market.
Outlook - Positive. Recently, NYX reported a solid Q1 2007, which did not include earnings from Euronext. I believe NYSE-Euronext will beat all estimates in upcoming quarters once the revenue from Euronext starts flowing in.
Current Recommendation - BUY. Currently, the street is not on board with NYX, which makes investing in NYX very risky. However, I believe NYX can bring big gains.

DJO Incorporated (DJO)
First Recommendation - BUY (02/10/2007)
Performance - ~ 11% decline in last 3 months
Reason behind lagging performance - Problems with the integration of the Aircast business. On 05/08/2007 DJO posted a 40 percent jump in operating expenses and consequently a fall in 2007 Q1 earnings causing its share price to fall by approximately ~ 17% in one day.
Outlook - Dim short term outlook. DJO cut its 2007 full-year profit forecast because of increasing costs of inventories. This will also constrain increasing market share in the 2007.
Current Recommendation - SELL. In my opinion investing in an orthopedic device company is a great way to play the baby-boomer trend. I think investors should look into other better established players of the industry with broader product line such as Zimmer Holdings Inc. (ZMH) and Stryker Corp. (SYK).

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
First Recommendation - BUY (02/20/2007)
Performance - ~ 12% gain in last 3 months
Reason behind excellent performance - International exposure and thriving commodity market.
Outlook - Positive. US housing market is expected to get better by the end of 2007 and this is good news for CAT.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

Exom Mobil Corp. (XOM)
First Recommendation - BUY (03/05/2007)
Performance - ~ 15% gain in last 2 months
Reason behind excellent performance - Strong market for Oil.
Outlook - Positive. An oil company is a must have in any well diversified portfolio, and in my opinion XOM is the best oil company. Also, XOM is one of the most loved company by the mutual funds biggies which makes it a low risk.
Current Recommendation - BUY.

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